One of the most important causes of crime is criminal "justice"

From the same survey as the previous post, here's a list of problems people being released from jail expect to face.

 

 

When people are released on probation or parole, the court often mandates that they receive substance abuse treatment. However, none of those other problems are ever addressed by court mandates or services provided by the criminal justice system. At the same time, people with criminal records have great difficulty finding employment, or housing, not just because they usually didn't have a lot of marketable skills or earning potential to begin with, but because most employers won't hire people with criminal records -- or even pending charges -- and people with criminal records are usually excluded from subsidized housing. So what is likely to happen to people who are out on the street, can't get a job, and can't get housing, who often have mental health and/or substance use disorders, may be estranged from their families? I think you can guess.

 

So why do people commit crimes in the first place (Ted Bundy and Bernie Madoff aside)? Believe it or not, a guy named Gary S. Becker, who won a Nobel Prize in economics, came up with something called the "economic theory of crime." Because the pseudo-science of economics -- which is really more akin to a religion than to a science -- accepts as one of its tenets of faith that people are "rational" economic actors, Becker concluded that criminals are "rational." People will violate the law if the expected value of the gains from crime, less (cost * risk) of possible punishment, exceeds the rewards of licit economic activity. The policy prescription is to make sure that crime doesn't pay by ramping up punishments. 

 

I hope I don't need to tell you why this ridiculous. Well before mass incarceration, blue-collar crime didn’t pay. Now the “wages” for, say, burglary, are pennies per hour. And people who shoplift or rob liquor stores aren’t thinking 5 years ahead. Just as important, most violent crimes aren’t instrumental at all. They’re personal disputes that escalate, or impulsive acts. They have zero financial reward. People who do commit crimes are characteristically present-oriented and impulsive, and have poor judgment. These are consequences of growing up in a high crime environment, neglectful or abusive parenting, and other disadvantages. But criminal justice involvement and incarceration aren't going to solve these problems, they just make them worse. 

 

Another reason why long sentences are counterproductive is that most people age out of criminal behavior. The human brain isn't fully developed until age 25 or so -- younger people generally have poorer impulse control and judgement than older people. The authorities generally recognize this with affluent white kids and they'll get a break for youthful hijinks and indiscretions. No such luck for the poor and non-white. So here's the summary:

 

 

 

So next time, I'll discuss what does work.

Sunday Sermonette: The main point

 Chapter 16 is the most essential chapter in the entire Bible to the Catholic Church, as Jesus essentially founds the church and appoints the first pope. This is also where he declares himself to be the Messiah, by assenting to Peter. There is a good deal I could say about this but I'll just leave you with one really big, really major problem: the last two verses. Obviously, that didn't happen within the lifetime of any of the people who heard this, and the church is still waiting for it. Oops!

 

16 The Pharisees and Sadducees came to Jesus and tested him by asking him to show them a sign from heaven.

² He replied, “When evening comes, you say, ‘It will be fair weather, for the sky is red,’ ³ and in the morning, ‘Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.’ You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times.^{[a] 4} A wicked and adulterous generation looks for a sign, but none will be given it except the sign of Jonah.” Jesus then left them and went away.

The Yeast of the Pharisees and Sadducees

⁵ When they went across the lake, the disciples forgot to take bread. ⁶ “Be careful,” Jesus said to them. “Be on your guard against the yeast of the Pharisees and Sadducees.”

⁷ They discussed this among themselves and said, “It is because we didn’t bring any bread.”

⁸ Aware of their discussion, Jesus asked, “You of little faith, why are you talking among yourselves about having no bread? ⁹ Do you still not understand? Don’t you remember the five loaves for the five thousand, and how many basketfuls you gathered? ¹⁰ Or the seven loaves for the four thousand, and how many basketfuls you gathered? ¹¹ How is it you don’t understand that I was not talking to you about bread? But be on your guard against the yeast of the Pharisees and Sadducees.” ¹² Then they understood that he was not telling them to guard against the yeast used in bread, but against the teaching of the Pharisees and Sadducees.

Peter Declares That Jesus Is the Messiah

¹³ When Jesus came to the region of Caesarea Philippi, he asked his disciples, “Who do people say the Son of Man is?”

¹⁴ They replied, “Some say John the Baptist; others say Elijah; and still others, Jeremiah or one of the prophets.”

¹⁵ “But what about you?” he asked. “Who do you say I am?”

¹⁶ Simon Peter answered, “You are the Messiah, the Son of the living God.”

¹⁷ Jesus replied, “Blessed are you, Simon son of Jonah, for this was not revealed to you by flesh and blood, but by my Father in heaven. ¹⁸ And I tell you that you are Peter,^[b] and on this rock I will build my church, and the gates of Hades^[c] will not overcome it. ¹⁹ I will give you the keys of the kingdom of heaven; whatever you bind on earth will be^[d] bound in heaven, and whatever you loose on earth will be^[e] loosed in heaven.” ²⁰ Then he ordered his disciples not to tell anyone that he was the Messiah.

Jesus Predicts His Death

²¹ From that time on Jesus began to explain to his disciples that he must go to Jerusalem and suffer many things at the hands of the elders, the chief priests and the teachers of the law, and that he must be killed and on the third day be raised to life.

²² Peter took him aside and began to rebuke him. “Never, Lord!” he said. “This shall never happen to you!”

²³ Jesus turned and said to Peter, “Get behind me, Satan! You are a stumbling block to me; you do not have in mind the concerns of God, but merely human concerns.”

²⁴ Then Jesus said to his disciples, “Whoever wants to be my disciple must deny themselves and take up their cross and follow me. ²⁵ For whoever wants to save their life^[f] will lose it, but whoever loses their life for me will find it. ²⁶ What good will it be for someone to gain the whole world, yet forfeit their soul? Or what can anyone give in exchange for their soul? ²⁷ For the Son of Man is going to come in his Father’s glory with his angels, and then he will reward each person according to what they have done.

²⁸ “Truly I tell you, some who are standing here will not taste death before they see the Son of Man coming in his kingdom.”

Footnotes

1. Matthew 16:3 Some early manuscripts do not have When evening comes … of the times.
2. Matthew 16:18 The Greek word for Peter means rock.
3. Matthew 16:18 That is, the realm of the dead
4. Matthew 16:19 Or will have been
5. Matthew 16:19 Or will have been
6. Matthew 16:25 The Greek word means either life or soul; also in verse 26.

 

Why crime?

Okay, given that we understand that neither Ted Bundy nor Bernie Madoff, or for that matter John Gotti, are representative of people who are charged with crimes, let's see what is true about the population of people who are incarcerated. We don't have good nationwide data but here's a recent cross section of the New York City jail population.

 

 

 As you can see, most have limited education, and were unemployed. Many have been homeless, and they have high rates of emotional disorders and Emergency Room use. So why did we start to incarcerate so many people in the 1980s? 

 

The first reason is that prisons replaced mental hospitals. 

Beginning in the ’70s, courts ruled that mental health patients should be moved from hospitals to community based services. States saved money by closing mental hospitals, but people were released without adequate care, housing, or social support. The idea was supposed to be that the states would replace institutional settings with community based supports, group homes, and outpatient mental health clinics. But for the most part, they never did that second part. Many people who were formerly institutionalized became homeless, and were arrested for substance abuse, petty theft, and disruptive behavior.A 2009 study found that 14.5% of men and 31% of women in jail suffered from serious mental illness. Available services preferentially benefit people with private insurance and less severe illness. Many providers, including state hospitals, will not accept Medicaid.

 

So here's what happened. These two curves are nearly mirror images.

 

 

The second reason is the war on some people who use some drugs. Of course these populations overlap to a large extent, as you can see.

 

 

 Historically, white and Black people have used illicit drugs at very similar rates, but Black people far more likely to be incarcerated for drug-related offenses. This is due to disproportionate police attention to minority communities,  disproportionate arrest, disproportionate charging, and disproportionate sentencing. 

 

These disparities begin with juvenile justice. In the affluent white suburban town where I grew up, if the cops busted kids partying they'd confiscate the pot and beer and tell them to get lost. (Then they'd smoke the pot and drink the beer themselves.) You know what happened to Black kids in the city. I did a study funded by the Office of Justice Programs in a couple of New Hampshire cities a while back, and basically, 100% of the white kids who were arrested were diverted to community service or counseling, and 100% of the Black and Hispanic kids were prosecuted. This is entirely at the discretion of the police, just to be clear. And being sentenced to a juvenile correctional institution is a straight path to adult prison.

 

Next we'll talk about the consequences of criminal conviction. 

 

 

 

Some true facts about crime

 

We must acknowledge that there are people who for whatever reason lack conscience or empathy, a condition for which there is no sure cure, and who cannot be in an uncontrolled environment. They are rare in real life, but very common on TV. We're not talking about Ted Bundy or Dennis Rader here. They don't constitute a blip in the statistics. However, they are the staple of TV police procedurals, which means that they constitute people's idea of what crime and criminals are all about.

 

In the next slide, I've lined up a graph showing the U.S. prison and jail population over time with the reported crime rate. We don't have reliable data on the crime rate going back as far as 1925, so the matchup begins in 1960. 

 

 

 

 I'm sorry if the dates are a little hard to read, but basically, the crime rate started to rise around 1975 and peaked in the early 1990s. The rate of incarceration followed that trend at first, but when the crime rate started to fall after 1995, the incarceration rate just kept going up, and didn't peak until 2010. Now it has come down a bit, but not nearly proportionately. The crime rate now is back to just a bit more than where it was before the increase began, and is probably pretty close to where it was throughout most of the 20th Century. So yes, we did have a troubling, and rather mysterious epidemic of violent crime, but it's been over for a while now. However, the corporate media, the general public, and politicians haven't gotten the memo.

 

We'll get back to why this may have happened. I personally think there's a pretty powerful single reason for it, but in order to understand it, we first need to consider who the people are who are incarcerated and involved in the criminal justice system. I remind you, that's not entirely congruent with the population of people who actually commit crimes, but it is in the minds of the public. 

Wednesday Bible Study: A man who cannot make up his mind

 Perhaps you remember Chapter 5, in which Jesus says the following:

 

¹⁷ “Do not think that I have come to abolish the Law or the Prophets; I have not come to abolish them but to fulfill them. ¹⁸ For truly I tell you, until heaven and earth disappear, not the smallest letter, not the least stroke of a pen, will by any means disappear from the Law until everything is accomplished. ¹⁹ Therefore anyone who sets aside one of the least of these commands and teaches others accordingly will be called least in the kingdom of heaven, but whoever practices and teaches these commands will be called great in the kingdom of heaven. ²⁰ For I tell you that unless your righteousness surpasses that of the Pharisees and the teachers of the law, you will certainly not enter the kingdom of heaven. 

 

Evidently he no longer believes this, because he nullifies the dietary laws in Verse 10 et seq. (And BTW, it is actually a good idea to wash your hands before you eat.) Then he calls a Canaanite woman a dog, and refuses to heal her, but after she grovels some more he finally relents. That's mighty Christian of him. Finally, the disciples shouldn't have been surprised when he feeds the multitude with seven loaves and a few fish, because he just did the same trick in the previous chapter. No doubt, just as with much of the Tanakh, this is a case of two versions of the oral tradition making it into the document.

 

5 Then some Pharisees and teachers of the law came to Jesus from Jerusalem and asked, ² “Why do your disciples break the tradition of the elders? They don’t wash their hands before they eat!”

³ Jesus replied, “And why do you break the command of God for the sake of your tradition? ⁴ For God said, ‘Honor your father and mother’^[a] and ‘Anyone who curses their father or mother is to be put to death.’^{[b] 5} But you say that if anyone declares that what might have been used to help their father or mother is ‘devoted to God,’ ⁶ they are not to ‘honor their father or mother’ with it. Thus you nullify the word of God for the sake of your tradition. ⁷ You hypocrites! Isaiah was right when he prophesied about you:

⁸ “‘These people honor me with their lips,
    but their hearts are far from me.
⁹ They worship me in vain;
    their teachings are merely human rules.’^[c]”

¹⁰ Jesus called the crowd to him and said, “Listen and understand. ¹¹ What goes into someone’s mouth does not defile them, but what comes out of their mouth, that is what defiles them.”

¹² Then the disciples came to him and asked, “Do you know that the Pharisees were offended when they heard this?”

¹³ He replied, “Every plant that my heavenly Father has not planted will be pulled up by the roots. ¹⁴ Leave them; they are blind guides.^[d] If the blind lead the blind, both will fall into a pit.”

¹⁵ Peter said, “Explain the parable to us.”

¹⁶ “Are you still so dull?” Jesus asked them. ¹⁷ “Don’t you see that whatever enters the mouth goes into the stomach and then out of the body? ¹⁸ But the things that come out of a person’s mouth come from the heart, and these defile them. ¹⁹ For out of the heart come evil thoughts—murder, adultery, sexual immorality, theft, false testimony, slander. ²⁰ These are what defile a person; but eating with unwashed hands does not defile them.”

The Faith of a Canaanite Woman

²¹ Leaving that place, Jesus withdrew to the region of Tyre and Sidon. ²² A Canaanite woman from that vicinity came to him, crying out, “Lord, Son of David, have mercy on me! My daughter is demon-possessed and suffering terribly.”

²³ Jesus did not answer a word. So his disciples came to him and urged him, “Send her away, for she keeps crying out after us.”

²⁴ He answered, “I was sent only to the lost sheep of Israel.”

²⁵ The woman came and knelt before him. “Lord, help me!” she said.

²⁶ He replied, “It is not right to take the children’s bread and toss it to the dogs.”

²⁷ “Yes it is, Lord,” she said. “Even the dogs eat the crumbs that fall from their master’s table.”

²⁸ Then Jesus said to her, “Woman, you have great faith! Your request is granted.” And her daughter was healed at that moment.

Jesus Feeds the Four Thousand

²⁹ Jesus left there and went along the Sea of Galilee. Then he went up on a mountainside and sat down. ³⁰ Great crowds came to him, bringing the lame, the blind, the crippled, the mute and many others, and laid them at his feet; and he healed them. ³¹ The people were amazed when they saw the mute speaking, the crippled made well, the lame walking and the blind seeing. And they praised the God of Israel.

³² Jesus called his disciples to him and said, “I have compassion for these people; they have already been with me three days and have nothing to eat. I do not want to send them away hungry, or they may collapse on the way.”

³³ His disciples answered, “Where could we get enough bread in this remote place to feed such a crowd?”

³⁴ “How many loaves do you have?” Jesus asked.

“Seven,” they replied, “and a few small fish.”

³⁵ He told the crowd to sit down on the ground. ³⁶ Then he took the seven loaves and the fish, and when he had given thanks, he broke them and gave them to the disciples, and they in turn to the people. ³⁷ They all ate and were satisfied. Afterward the disciples picked up seven basketfuls of broken pieces that were left over. ³⁸ The number of those who ate was four thousand men, besides women and children. ³⁹ After Jesus had sent the crowd away, he got into the boat and went to the vicinity of Magadan.

Footnotes

1. Matthew 15:4 Exodus 20:12; Deut. 5:16
2. Matthew 15:4 Exodus 21:17; Lev. 20:9
3. Matthew 15:9 Isaiah 29:13
4. Matthew 15:14 Some manuscripts blind guides of the blind

 

Turns out my series on crime is timely!

In his ongoing desperate attempt to get people to stop talking about his late friend Eppy, The Dumpster is promising a military occupation of the nation's capital in order to eliminate crime.  Crime in D.C. is actually at a 30 year low -- oh no, I take that back, it's just that the crimes are being committed by members of the federal executive branch. Anyway, here's my slide that sets up the rest of the talk:

 

 

 

 

 

Now I'm going to jump ahead and tell you what has really been happening historically, and what people believe, which is the exact opposite, at least for Republicans.

 

Here's the perception:

 

 

 

 And here's the reality:

 

 

 

Property crimes and violent crimes have been falling, steadily and quite dramatically, for 30 years. Here's what's really interesting:

 

 

 

While Joe Biden was president, 90% -- that's right, 90%  of Republicans believed that crime was increasing, while only 29% of Democrats thought that. But it wasn't true! It was a lie! Have you ever heard of Republicans believing lies before? It's quite astonishing. Anyway, next time I'll talk about why crime happens, how it's related to incarceration, and some likely reasons it's been declining, at least until this year.

Sunday Sermonette: Mystery Character

It's worth asking why the synoptic gospels make so much of the character of John the Baptist. He is pretty much irrelevant to Christian theology -- Jesus could be the son of God, preach, perform miracles, get himself crucified, be resurrected and become your Lord and Savior if John the Baptist never existed. The story of his imprisonment and death is entirely irrelevant to the ministry of Jesus. 

 

This has to do somehow with the politics of the era. As I have suggested before, a likely hypothesis is that Christianity emerged from a Jewish sect, specifically the Essenes or an Essene splinter group, and that John is an important figure to that sect. The story of his death as told in Chapter 14 is connected with some very complicated politics of the Roman administration. Some of the details are unclear in the historical record. If you're really interested you can read the Wikipedia article on Herodias. 

 

To put it in as small a nutshell as I can, the man called Herod here is obviously not the Herod who killed all the babies at the beginning of the story, but his successor. He is not however the first Herod's son, and Herod isn't even his real name. There is some confusion about who he actually was and what his real name was. Anyway, Herodias had divorced her first husband, who was indeed Herod II, but for complicated reasons (read the Wikipedia article if you really care) Herod the Great dropped Herod II from the line of succession, and at some point Herodias divorced him, and married the new successor, although we aren't sure who he actually was. In any case, John the Baptist opposed the marriage, which is why he got in trouble. 

 

It is strange indeed that Herod says in the beginning that Jesus is John the Baptist risen from the dead because, obviously, at this point John the Baptist is not dead but very much alive, in Herod's prison. So you'll have to figure that out for yourself. Anyway, as we read on, when Jesus learns of John's death, it basically doesn't matter, he just goes on preaching and performing miracles as if nothing has happened. This is where we get the loaves and fishes. Remember that Satan tempted Jesus by proposing that he miraculously create food, and Jesus intimated that would be an improper use of his powers. It seems he changed his mind. Then he walked on water.

 

14 At that time Herod the tetrarch heard the reports about Jesus, ² and he said to his attendants, “This is John the Baptist; he has risen from the dead! That is why miraculous powers are at work in him.”

³ Now Herod had arrested John and bound him and put him in prison because of Herodias, his brother Philip’s wife, ⁴ for John had been saying to him: “It is not lawful for you to have her.” ⁵ Herod wanted to kill John, but he was afraid of the people, because they considered John a prophet.

⁶ On Herod’s birthday the daughter of Herodias danced for the guests and pleased Herod so much ⁷ that he promised with an oath to give her whatever she asked. ⁸ Prompted by her mother, she said, “Give me here on a platter the head of John the Baptist.” ⁹ The king was distressed, but because of his oaths and his dinner guests, he ordered that her request be granted ¹⁰ and had John beheaded in the prison. ¹¹ His head was brought in on a platter and given to the girl, who carried it to her mother. ¹² John’s disciples came and took his body and buried it. Then they went and told Jesus.

Jesus Feeds the Five Thousand

¹³ When Jesus heard what had happened, he withdrew by boat privately to a solitary place. Hearing of this, the crowds followed him on foot from the towns. ¹⁴ When Jesus landed and saw a large crowd, he had compassion on them and healed their sick.

¹⁵ As evening approached, the disciples came to him and said, “This is a remote place, and it’s already getting late. Send the crowds away, so they can go to the villages and buy themselves some food.”

¹⁶ Jesus replied, “They do not need to go away. You give them something to eat.”

¹⁷ “We have here only five loaves of bread and two fish,” they answered.

¹⁸ “Bring them here to me,” he said. ¹⁹ And he directed the people to sit down on the grass. Taking the five loaves and the two fish and looking up to heaven, he gave thanks and broke the loaves. Then he gave them to the disciples, and the disciples gave them to the people. ²⁰ They all ate and were satisfied, and the disciples picked up twelve basketfuls of broken pieces that were left over. ²¹ The number of those who ate was about five thousand men, besides women and children.

Jesus Walks on the Water

²² Immediately Jesus made the disciples get into the boat and go on ahead of him to the other side, while he dismissed the crowd. ²³ After he had dismissed them, he went up on a mountainside by himself to pray. Later that night, he was there alone, ²⁴ and the boat was already a considerable distance from land, buffeted by the waves because the wind was against it.

²⁵ Shortly before dawn Jesus went out to them, walking on the lake. ²⁶ When the disciples saw him walking on the lake, they were terrified. “It’s a ghost,” they said, and cried out in fear.

²⁷ But Jesus immediately said to them: “Take courage! It is I. Don’t be afraid.”

²⁸ “Lord, if it’s you,” Peter replied, “tell me to come to you on the water.”

²⁹ “Come,” he said.

Then Peter got down out of the boat, walked on the water and came toward Jesus. ³⁰ But when he saw the wind, he was afraid and, beginning to sink, cried out, “Lord, save me!”

³¹ Immediately Jesus reached out his hand and caught him. “You of little faith,” he said, “why did you doubt?”

³² And when they climbed into the boat, the wind died down. ³³ Then those who were in the boat worshiped him, saying, “Truly you are the Son of God.”

³⁴ When they had crossed over, they landed at Gennesaret. ³⁵ And when the men of that place recognized Jesus, they sent word to all the surrounding country. People brought all their sick to him ³⁶ and begged him to let the sick just touch the edge of his cloak, and all who touched it were healed.

 

International comparisons of crime rates

 Okay, since there was such a thunderous response to my presentation of the variables captured in the "crime rate," I'll just point out that neither system captures most of what we think of as white collar crime. Bernie Madoff, Bernie Ebers and Ken Lay aren't in there. Drug companies that illegally market products off label aren't in there. In fact, their crimes, and most forms of financial fraud, aren't usually treated as crimes at all. Viz. Trump University. The perpetrators sign a consent decree saying they didn't do it, they won't do it again, and they pay a fine that is substantially less than the profit they made from the fraud. 

 

Anyway, leaving all that aside, the UN does compile data on crime rates internationally. However, due to different definitions of crime, different likelihood of particular categories of crime being reported or ascertained by authorities, and varying reliability of the data collection process, comparisons are most valid for murder and armed robbery. Comparing murder rates, the U.S. ranks 10th in the world, just after Mongolia. (Jamaica, for some reason, is number one.) Remember, however, that we rank 5th in the rate of incarceration. However, for overall ascertained crime -- what the UN calls the "crime index," the U.S. is pretty average, 57th overall, comparable to Belgium and Sweden. 

 

I don't have to tell you the reason why we are so good at murder even though we don't have exceptionally much crime overall. The best way to kill someone is to use a machine designed specifically for that purpose, and we have more of them than anybody. So, these are some major caveats:

 

• “Crime” in official statistics does not generally include financial fraud, deceptive marketing or sales fraud, confidence schemes and extortion.
• Most crimes are not reported or ascertained, particularly in the above categories. Sexual assault, child abuse and domestic violence are certainly underreported.

So, here are my takeaways for today.

 

 

 Next, we'll discuss the nature of the "crime" problem and what to do about it.

 

 

 

 

What does "crime rate" mean?

Could it be that the reason the U.S. incarcerates more people is that we simply have more crime? That's a reasonable question, although obviously if it is true locking people up doesn't seem to be solving the problem. But is it true? That's actually quite a complicated question. 

 

First of all, we have to define "crime." Dictionary definitions are generally of the effect that "Crime is behavior . . . defined by statutory or common law as deserving of punishment or penalty.” However, there are huge differences over time and place -- among countries, states and even cities, in what behavior is regarded as criminal. For example, sex work was legal in Rhode Island until quite recently, and it is legal today in Nevada, Switzerland and the Netherlands. The definition of criminality also changes over time due to changing social norms -- e.g. alcohol, homosexual acts, pornography, marijuana. It used to be perfectly legal in the U.S. for men to beat and rape their wives. I could go on but you get the idea.

 

In fact, although many acts that once were illegal are no longer, the changing social, material and technological context tends to increase the scope of the law. The invention of the motor vehicle led to a huge new body of criminal law. Computers and the Internet created a need for whole new categories of legislation to address new kinds of fraud and abuse. On the other hand some laws are enforced inconsistently, or rarely, or only against some groups of people. And there are huge differences among jurisdictions in what is considered serious or trivial. When we talk about crime rates, we usually aren't including minor offenses like parking tickets, littering, or even, say, public urination. So what are we talking about?

 

In the U.S. there are two main sources for "crime rate" numbers: FBI Uniform Crime Reports, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey. Here's the summary:

 

 

 

You may notice a few things of interest. I'll come back tomorrow to discuss them. 

 

 

The Carceral State

The United States has many distinctions, but one we probably should not be proud of is that we incarcerate a higher percentage of our population than all but a few countries we probably don't want to be compared to. We aren't quite number one, but we aren't in proud company. Here are the top six:

 

 

 

Okay, North Korea would probably be on there if we had reliable data, but that's scant comfort. And just looking at comparable countries, we're totally off the charts:

 

 

 And I hope the next picture doesn't come as a big surprise.

 

 

 

Welllll, you might say, maybe we have an exceptionally high crime rate. No, we don't. However, that's rather complicated. I'll take up the question of crime rates next.

Smart on Crime

I stole the title or this post from an essay by Mark A.R. Kleinman, in the journal Democracy, from which I pull this quote:

 

“Conservatives, who want to fight crime by hurting people who commit it, have a natural rhetorical advantage over liberals, whose tendency is to fight crime by helping those who have committed it or might do so.”

Mark A.R. Kleiman*

* Democracy. 28. 2013

 

I'm going to present a series of posts, based on a talk I gave recently. As you must know, the perception is widespread that crime in the U.S. has been increasing, that it constitutes a crisis, and that it's all the fault of bleeding heart liberals. None of this is actually true, but nowadays that doesn't matter. I'll discuss the reality of crime in the U.S., including statistics, the nature of the problem, and what we ought to do about it. Here are my next two slides:

 

 

 

 

 It probably won't surprise you that I'm somewhat more sympathetic to the first set of propositions than I am to the second, but they both need some criticizing. We'll embark on that journey next.

 

 

Wednesday Bible Study: Deepitude

A deepitude is a saying that may seem profound or wise at first glance, but turns out to be shallow or nonsensical. I believe it has been applied specifically to Deepak Choprah, but Matthew 13 is pretty much the quintessence of deepitude. JC clothes the simplest of ideas in elaborate allegories, avowedly for the purpose of making them difficult to understand. It also turns out that the people who know him best -- the neighbors he grew up with -- think he's a charlatan. Hmm.

 

Oh yeah, he has brothers and sisters. So Mary must not be a virgin. Just sayin'.

 

13 That same day Jesus went out of the house and sat by the lake. ² Such large crowds gathered around him that he got into a boat and sat in it, while all the people stood on the shore. ³ Then he told them many things in parables, saying: “A farmer went out to sow his seed. ⁴ As he was scattering the seed, some fell along the path, and the birds came and ate it up. ⁵ Some fell on rocky places, where it did not have much soil. It sprang up quickly, because the soil was shallow. ⁶ But when the sun came up, the plants were scorched, and they withered because they had no root. ⁷ Other seed fell among thorns, which grew up and choked the plants. ⁸ Still other seed fell on good soil, where it produced a crop—a hundred, sixty or thirty times what was sown. ⁹ Whoever has ears, let them hear.”

¹⁰ The disciples came to him and asked, “Why do you speak to the people in parables?”

¹¹ He replied, “Because the knowledge of the secrets of the kingdom of heaven has been given to you, but not to them. ¹² Whoever has will be given more, and they will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even what they have will be taken from them. ¹³ This is why I speak to them in parables:

“Though seeing, they do not see;
    though hearing, they do not hear or understand.

¹⁴ In them is fulfilled the prophecy of Isaiah:

“‘You will be ever hearing but never understanding;
    you will be ever seeing but never perceiving.
¹⁵ For this people’s heart has become calloused;
    they hardly hear with their ears,
    and they have closed their eyes.
Otherwise they might see with their eyes,
    hear with their ears,
    understand with their hearts
and turn, and I would heal them.’^[a]

¹⁶ But blessed are your eyes because they see, and your ears because they hear. ¹⁷ For truly I tell you, many prophets and righteous people longed to see what you see but did not see it, and to hear what you hear but did not hear it.

¹⁸ “Listen then to what the parable of the sower means: ¹⁹ When anyone hears the message about the kingdom and does not understand it, the evil one comes and snatches away what was sown in their heart. This is the seed sown along the path. ²⁰ The seed falling on rocky ground refers to someone who hears the word and at once receives it with joy. ²¹ But since they have no root, they last only a short time. When trouble or persecution comes because of the word, they quickly fall away. ²² The seed falling among the thorns refers to someone who hears the word, but the worries of this life and the deceitfulness of wealth choke the word, making it unfruitful. ²³ But the seed falling on good soil refers to someone who hears the word and understands it. This is the one who produces a crop, yielding a hundred, sixty or thirty times what was sown.”

The Parable of the Weeds

²⁴ Jesus told them another parable: “The kingdom of heaven is like a man who sowed good seed in his field. ²⁵ But while everyone was sleeping, his enemy came and sowed weeds among the wheat, and went away. ²⁶ When the wheat sprouted and formed heads, then the weeds also appeared.

²⁷ “The owner’s servants came to him and said, ‘Sir, didn’t you sow good seed in your field? Where then did the weeds come from?’

²⁸ “‘An enemy did this,’ he replied.

“The servants asked him, ‘Do you want us to go and pull them up?’

²⁹ “‘No,’ he answered, ‘because while you are pulling the weeds, you may uproot the wheat with them. ³⁰ Let both grow together until the harvest. At that time I will tell the harvesters: First collect the weeds and tie them in bundles to be burned; then gather the wheat and bring it into my barn.’”

The Parables of the Mustard Seed and the Yeast

³¹ He told them another parable: “The kingdom of heaven is like a mustard seed, which a man took and planted in his field. ³² Though it is the smallest of all seeds, yet when it grows, it is the largest of garden plants and becomes a tree, so that the birds come and perch in its branches.”

³³ He told them still another parable: “The kingdom of heaven is like yeast that a woman took and mixed into about sixty pounds^[b] of flour until it worked all through the dough.”

³⁴ Jesus spoke all these things to the crowd in parables; he did not say anything to them without using a parable. ³⁵ So was fulfilled what was spoken through the prophet:

“I will open my mouth in parables,
    I will utter things hidden since the creation of the world.”^[c]

The Parable of the Weeds Explained

³⁶ Then he left the crowd and went into the house. His disciples came to him and said, “Explain to us the parable of the weeds in the field.”

³⁷ He answered, “The one who sowed the good seed is the Son of Man. ³⁸ The field is the world, and the good seed stands for the people of the kingdom. The weeds are the people of the evil one, ³⁹ and the enemy who sows them is the devil. The harvest is the end of the age, and the harvesters are angels.

⁴⁰ “As the weeds are pulled up and burned in the fire, so it will be at the end of the age. ⁴¹ The Son of Man will send out his angels, and they will weed out of his kingdom everything that causes sin and all who do evil. ⁴² They will throw them into the blazing furnace, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth. ⁴³ Then the righteous will shine like the sun in the kingdom of their Father. Whoever has ears, let them hear.

The Parables of the Hidden Treasure and the Pearl

⁴⁴ “The kingdom of heaven is like treasure hidden in a field. When a man found it, he hid it again, and then in his joy went and sold all he had and bought that field.

⁴⁵ “Again, the kingdom of heaven is like a merchant looking for fine pearls. ⁴⁶ When he found one of great value, he went away and sold everything he had and bought it.

The Parable of the Net

⁴⁷ “Once again, the kingdom of heaven is like a net that was let down into the lake and caught all kinds of fish. ⁴⁸ When it was full, the fishermen pulled it up on the shore. Then they sat down and collected the good fish in baskets, but threw the bad away. ⁴⁹ This is how it will be at the end of the age. The angels will come and separate the wicked from the righteous ⁵⁰ and throw them into the blazing furnace, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

⁵¹ “Have you understood all these things?” Jesus asked.

“Yes,” they replied.

⁵² He said to them, “Therefore every teacher of the law who has become a disciple in the kingdom of heaven is like the owner of a house who brings out of his storeroom new treasures as well as old.”

A Prophet Without Honor

⁵³ When Jesus had finished these parables, he moved on from there. ⁵⁴ Coming to his hometown, he began teaching the people in their synagogue, and they were amazed. “Where did this man get this wisdom and these miraculous powers?” they asked. ⁵⁵ “Isn’t this the carpenter’s son? Isn’t his mother’s name Mary, and aren’t his brothers James, Joseph, Simon and Judas? ⁵⁶ Aren’t all his sisters with us? Where then did this man get all these things?” ⁵⁷ And they took offense at him.

But Jesus said to them, “A prophet is not without honor except in his own town and in his own home.”

⁵⁸ And he did not do many miracles there because of their lack of faith.

Footnotes

1. Matthew 13:15 Isaiah 6:9,10 (see Septuagint)
2. Matthew 13:33 Or about 27 kilograms
3. Matthew 13:35 Psalm 78:2

 

 

 

Sunday Sermonette: Jesus apparently hadn't read the Bible either

Matthew 12 is full of stuff that gets quoted a lot, but it's actually largely gibberish. I'll let you largely decide for yourself if I'm right about that, but I will point out a couple of issues. In verse 4, JC refers to "David and his companions" eating consecrated bread. This is apparently a reference to 1 Samuel 21, when David was on the run, and went to the priest Ahimelek and asked for bread. Here is what happened:

 

⁴ But the priest answered David, “I don’t have any ordinary bread on hand; however, there is some consecrated bread here—provided the men have kept themselves from women.”

⁵ David replied, “Indeed women have been kept from us, as usual whenever^[b] I set out. The men’s bodies are holy even on missions that are not holy. How much more so today!” ⁶ So the priest gave him the consecrated bread, since there was no bread there except the bread of the Presence.

There is no intimation that it was unlawful for the men to eat the bread, as JC asserts.

When Jesus quotes Isaiah starting in verse 18, the reference is to Isaiah 42. But the Isaiah's "servant" is not a person, certainly not Jesus, it is the nation of Israel. Jesus apparently believes literally in the book of Jonah, and says he will be entombed for three days and three nights, as Jonah was in the belly of the fish for that long. But one thing the gospels agree on is that Jesus was entombed for one day and two nights.

 

As for the rest of it, as I say, judge for yourself. 

 

 

12 At that time Jesus went through the grainfields on the Sabbath. His disciples were hungry and began to pick some heads of grain and eat them. ² When the Pharisees saw this, they said to him, “Look! Your disciples are doing what is unlawful on the Sabbath.”

³ He answered, “Haven’t you read what David did when he and his companions were hungry? ⁴ He entered the house of God, and he and his companions ate the consecrated bread—which was not lawful for them to do, but only for the priests. ⁵ Or haven’t you read in the Law that the priests on Sabbath duty in the temple desecrate the Sabbath and yet are innocent? ⁶ I tell you that something greater than the temple is here. ⁷ If you had known what these words mean, ‘I desire mercy, not sacrifice,’^[a] you would not have condemned the innocent. ⁸ For the Son of Man is Lord of the Sabbath.”

⁹ Going on from that place, he went into their synagogue, ¹⁰ and a man with a shriveled hand was there. Looking for a reason to bring charges against Jesus, they asked him, “Is it lawful to heal on the Sabbath?”

¹¹ He said to them, “If any of you has a sheep and it falls into a pit on the Sabbath, will you not take hold of it and lift it out? ¹² How much more valuable is a person than a sheep! Therefore it is lawful to do good on the Sabbath.”

¹³ Then he said to the man, “Stretch out your hand.” So he stretched it out and it was completely restored, just as sound as the other. ¹⁴ But the Pharisees went out and plotted how they might kill Jesus.

God’s Chosen Servant

¹⁵ Aware of this, Jesus withdrew from that place. A large crowd followed him, and he healed all who were ill. ¹⁶ He warned them not to tell others about him. ¹⁷ This was to fulfill what was spoken through the prophet Isaiah:

¹⁸ “Here is my servant whom I have chosen,
    the one I love, in whom I delight;
I will put my Spirit on him,
    and he will proclaim justice to the nations.
¹⁹ He will not quarrel or cry out;
    no one will hear his voice in the streets.
²⁰ A bruised reed he will not break,
    and a smoldering wick he will not snuff out,
till he has brought justice through to victory.
²¹     In his name the nations will put their hope.”^[b]

Jesus and Beelzebul

²² Then they brought him a demon-possessed man who was blind and mute, and Jesus healed him, so that he could both talk and see. ²³ All the people were astonished and said, “Could this be the Son of David?”

²⁴ But when the Pharisees heard this, they said, “It is only by Beelzebul, the prince of demons, that this fellow drives out demons.”

²⁵ Jesus knew their thoughts and said to them, “Every kingdom divided against itself will be ruined, and every city or household divided against itself will not stand. ²⁶ If Satan drives out Satan, he is divided against himself. How then can his kingdom stand? ²⁷ And if I drive out demons by Beelzebul, by whom do your people drive them out? So then, they will be your judges. ²⁸ But if it is by the Spirit of God that I drive out demons, then the kingdom of God has come upon you.

²⁹ “Or again, how can anyone enter a strong man’s house and carry off his possessions unless he first ties up the strong man? Then he can plunder his house.

³⁰ “Whoever is not with me is against me, and whoever does not gather with me scatters. ³¹ And so I tell you, every kind of sin and slander can be forgiven, but blasphemy against the Spirit will not be forgiven. ³² Anyone who speaks a word against the Son of Man will be forgiven, but anyone who speaks against the Holy Spirit will not be forgiven, either in this age or in the age to come.

³³ “Make a tree good and its fruit will be good, or make a tree bad and its fruit will be bad, for a tree is recognized by its fruit. ³⁴ You brood of vipers, how can you who are evil say anything good? For the mouth speaks what the heart is full of. ³⁵ A good man brings good things out of the good stored up in him, and an evil man brings evil things out of the evil stored up in him. ³⁶ But I tell you that everyone will have to give account on the day of judgment for every empty word they have spoken. ³⁷ For by your words you will be acquitted, and by your words you will be condemned.”

The Sign of Jonah

³⁸ Then some of the Pharisees and teachers of the law said to him, “Teacher, we want to see a sign from you.”

³⁹ He answered, “A wicked and adulterous generation asks for a sign! But none will be given it except the sign of the prophet Jonah. ⁴⁰ For as Jonah was three days and three nights in the belly of a huge fish, so the Son of Man will be three days and three nights in the heart of the earth. ⁴¹ The men of Nineveh will stand up at the judgment with this generation and condemn it; for they repented at the preaching of Jonah, and now something greater than Jonah is here. ⁴² The Queen of the South will rise at the judgment with this generation and condemn it; for she came from the ends of the earth to listen to Solomon’s wisdom, and now something greater than Solomon is here.

⁴³ “When an impure spirit comes out of a person, it goes through arid places seeking rest and does not find it. ⁴⁴ Then it says, ‘I will return to the house I left.’ When it arrives, it finds the house unoccupied, swept clean and put in order. ⁴⁵ Then it goes and takes with it seven other spirits more wicked than itself, and they go in and live there. And the final condition of that person is worse than the first. That is how it will be with this wicked generation.”

Jesus’ Mother and Brothers

⁴⁶ While Jesus was still talking to the crowd, his mother and brothers stood outside, wanting to speak to him. ⁴⁷ Someone told him, “Your mother and brothers are standing outside, wanting to speak to you.”

⁴⁸ He replied to him, “Who is my mother, and who are my brothers?” ⁴⁹ Pointing to his disciples, he said, “Here are my mother and my brothers. ⁵⁰ For whoever does the will of my Father in heaven is my brother and sister and mother.”

Footnotes

1. Matthew 12:7 Hosea 6:6
2. Matthew 12:21 Isaiah 42:1-4

 

Idle speculation

 I confess that my thinking about the whole Epstein thing has evolved, pretty much along the same lines as Betty Cracker's.  I'll mostly just outsource the discussion, but there is something in there that the Great Pumpkin very much does not want you to know, and he sure as hell is doing an excellent imitation of a guilty man.

 

The problem remains that Christopher Wray and Merrick Garland, along with quite a few FBI agents and DoJ attorneys, also know the information, and knew it while Joe Biden was president. Now, if none of it is prosecutable, then institutionalist Merrick Garland would indeed have sat on it out of principle. But a lot of people know it who, given the current state of the union, would be motivated to leak it, and so far that hasn't happened. So that is a puzzle. Feel free to speculate.

Wednesday Bible Study: Stop making sense

Matthew 11 is full of strangeness. I don't want to bore you by enumerating all of it, but let's start with a couple of obvious oddities. John the Baptist, who is imprisoned (without explanation)  sends a messenger to ask if Jesus is "the one who is to come, or should we expect someone else?" He's evidently pretty dense, because in Chapter 3, he baptized Jesus and heard the voice of God say "This is my beloved son, in whom I am well pleased." Jesus also makes an odd remark in the following verse, "From the days of John the Baptist until now . . ." since John is still alive. 

Jesus says that John is a reincarnation of Elijah, which the other synoptic gospels support in different words. However, the Gospel of John rejects the claim: "This is the record of John, when the Jews sent priests and Levites from Jerusalem to ask him, Who art thou? ... And they asked him, What then? Art thou Elijah? And he saith, I am not." (John 1:19). 

Jesus prophecies the destruction of several towns, including his home town of Capernaum, but this never happened. 

The bottom line is that these are all rather poorly edited compilations of oral tradition. They contain innumerable contradictions and nonsensical passages. As I have said many times, the people who believe in the Bible most fervently have not read it. Tufts Professor Daniel Dennett published a book with Linda LaScola in 2013 titled "Caught in the Pulpit: Leaving Belief Behind." They interviewed numerous clergy, who had the revelatory experience of actually reading and studying the Bible in the seminary and discovering that it is a total pile of bullshit. They became secret atheists, but because being Christian ministers was their only marketable skill, they stayed on the job, rationalizing that they were providing comfort for people. Really. Of course, a lot of them just do it for the big bucks.

 

 

11 After Jesus had finished instructing his twelve disciples, he went on from there to teach and preach in the towns of Galilee.^[a]

² When John, who was in prison, heard about the deeds of the Messiah, he sent his disciples ³ to ask him, “Are you the one who is to come, or should we expect someone else?”

⁴ Jesus replied, “Go back and report to John what you hear and see: ⁵ The blind receive sight, the lame walk, those who have leprosy^[b] are cleansed, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, and the good news is proclaimed to the poor. ⁶ Blessed is anyone who does not stumble on account of me.”

⁷ As John’s disciples were leaving, Jesus began to speak to the crowd about John: “What did you go out into the wilderness to see? A reed swayed by the wind? ⁸ If not, what did you go out to see? A man dressed in fine clothes? No, those who wear fine clothes are in kings’ palaces. ⁹ Then what did you go out to see? A prophet? Yes, I tell you, and more than a prophet. ¹⁰ This is the one about whom it is written:

“‘I will send my messenger ahead of you,
    who will prepare your way before you.’^[c]

¹¹ Truly I tell you, among those born of women there has not risen anyone greater than John the Baptist; yet whoever is least in the kingdom of heaven is greater than he. ¹² From the days of John the Baptist until now, the kingdom of heaven has been subjected to violence,^[d] and violent people have been raiding it. ¹³ For all the Prophets and the Law prophesied until John. ¹⁴ And if you are willing to accept it, he is the Elijah who was to come. ¹⁵ Whoever has ears, let them hear.

¹⁶ “To what can I compare this generation? They are like children sitting in the marketplaces and calling out to others:

¹⁷ “‘We played the pipe for you,
    and you did not dance;
we sang a dirge,
    and you did not mourn.’

¹⁸ For John came neither eating nor drinking, and they say, ‘He has a demon.’ ¹⁹ The Son of Man came eating and drinking, and they say, ‘Here is a glutton and a drunkard, a friend of tax collectors and sinners.’ But wisdom is proved right by her deeds.”

Woe on Unrepentant Towns

²⁰ Then Jesus began to denounce the towns in which most of his miracles had been performed, because they did not repent. ²¹ “Woe to you, Chorazin! Woe to you, Bethsaida! For if the miracles that were performed in you had been performed in Tyre and Sidon, they would have repented long ago in sackcloth and ashes. ²² But I tell you, it will be more bearable for Tyre and Sidon on the day of judgment than for you. ²³ And you, Capernaum, will you be lifted to the heavens? No, you will go down to Hades.^[e] For if the miracles that were performed in you had been performed in Sodom, it would have remained to this day. ²⁴ But I tell you that it will be more bearable for Sodom on the day of judgment than for you.”

The Father Revealed in the Son

²⁵ At that time Jesus said, “I praise you, Father, Lord of heaven and earth, because you have hidden these things from the wise and learned, and revealed them to little children. ²⁶ Yes, Father, for this is what you were pleased to do.

²⁷ “All things have been committed to me by my Father. No one knows the Son except the Father, and no one knows the Father except the Son and those to whom the Son chooses to reveal him.

²⁸ “Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest. ²⁹ Take my yoke upon you and learn from me, for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. ³⁰ For my yoke is easy and my burden is light.”

Footnotes

1. Matthew 11:1 Greek in their towns
2. Matthew 11:5 The Greek word traditionally translated leprosy was used for various diseases affecting the skin.
3. Matthew 11:10 Mal. 3:1
4. Matthew 11:12 Or been forcefully advancing
5. Matthew 11:23 That is, the realm of the dead